Forecast

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Last refresh: 2023-06-17 03:44:43.446333

3 day ahead forecast

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Past 1 day backfit

The final day is held back from the model to assess performance on unseen data for the forecast.

Status

Last data model was trained on: 2023-06-15 21:45:00.
Back test prediction for: 2023-06-16
Forecast from: 2023-06-17
Seen Mean Absolute Error (per period): 238.7 MW

Table View

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3 day ahead forecast

This is a tabular view of the main graph.

About This

What is this

This is a quick and dirty experiment using Belgium’s largest grid operator (Elia)’s generous open data commitment to model the previous load and forecast ahead a 3 day horizon.

To check with the actual grid situation, visit here and scroll down to the grid load chart.

How does this work?

Every day at midnight UTC a script automatically downloads the previous day’s load from the elia website, as well as the temperatures in Brussels and Bruges from the openmeteo API.

A machine learning technique called gradient boosting is used to make a time series prediction for the next 3 days.

A number of different features are included in the final model, including holiday and weekend times, warming effects and recent loads.

A back fit on the past day is also run as a quick a validation step. This allows a Mean Absolute Error calculation: the average error expected, either + or - per 15 minute period.

For some exploratory data analysis I sketched up while working on this model, see here.

www.charlesmercieca.com